Brazil’s Betting Landscape: New Data Challenges Claims of Widespread Gambling Addiction
In a fresh wave of insights, Brazil’s regulatory body for betting, the Secretariat of Prizes and Bets (SPA), has provided data that contradicts allegations of widespread gambling addiction across the nation.
Recent figures from August indicate that an impressive 17.7 million Brazilians placed bets through licensed operators during the initial half of 2025. This revelation raises significant concerns regarding some politicians’ narratives portraying gambling as a source of mass addiction.
The SPA’s release highlighted that the Gross Gaming Revenue (GGR) for the licensed betting sector soared to BRL 17.4 billion (approximately $3.2 billion) in the first half of the year. With 17.7 million bettors, this translates to about 8.3% of the total Brazilian population, and notably, 10.6% among adults.
These statistics challenge the claims purporting that the burgeoning regulated market is fueling addiction crises. Ed Birkin, managing director of H2 Gambling Capital, asserts that the data reflects typical engagement levels expected in a regulated online gambling landscape.
Birkin states, “The figures contradict the narrative of rampant gambling addiction in Brazil.” He draws comparisons with other markets, noting that in the Netherlands, around 5.4% of adults have accounts with legal operators, while the UK sees about 20%. He suggests that Brazil’s current statistics align with what one would anticipate for a "typical" online gambling environment, leaving questions about problem gambling open for further investigation.
SPA Advocating for Evidence-Driven Regulation
The prevailing narrative suggesting that regulated gambling incites widespread addiction has fueled various legislative efforts aimed at constraining the licensed sector. The gambling community is currently monitoring developments, including the potential permanence of a proposed gambling tax increase and ongoing discussions about marketing restrictions.
In light of the SPA’s recent data release, its chief, Regis Dudena, has called for grounding regulatory discussions in verified data. “We can now engage in a well-informed dialogue regarding Brazil’s fixed-odds betting market,” Dudena commented, emphasizing the need for evidence-based regulation.
Udo Seckelmann, who leads the gambling and crypto sector at Bichara e Motta Advogados, regards this focus on data as a constructive step forward. He argues that effective policymaking should rely on facts rather than assumptions. By publicly sharing market data, the SPA signals a commitment to engaging in transparent dialogues with stakeholders, thereby bolstering regulatory integrity and mitigating risks that could inadvertently undermine the sector’s competitiveness.
The Challenge of the Illegal Market
Seckelmann and Birkin also caution against idealized views that overlook the dynamics of the illegal gambling market. Current estimates suggest this black market could encompass between 30% to 60% of Brazil’s betting activities.
For Birkin, establishing an accepted benchmark for the illegal gambling market is essential. He emphasizes that effective regulation should aim to draw as many participants as possible into a controlled and safe environment. Monitoring the illegal market’s size and trajectory is crucial for assessing both the impact of current regulations and any future changes.
A Promising Outlook for Brazil’s Gaming Industry
Despite some scrutiny over the time taken to release such critical market data, both Seckelmann and Birkin view this as a natural progression as Brazil’s regulated sector continues to mature.
Seckelmann said, “The H1 statistics are promising and affirm that the regulated market is gaining a solid foothold in Brazil.” He notes that the data aligns with prior expectations on betting volumes and tax yields, underscoring the sector’s role as an engine for economic growth, job creation, and responsible entertainment.
In closing, Seckelmann mentions that enhanced transparency could build trust among bettors, making them more inclined to favor licensed platforms over unregulated options. “As bettors recognize that the regulated sector is generating significant tax income and adhering to strict oversight, they may opt for these legal avenues,” he concludes. “This not only fortifies public trust but also promotes the long-term viability of Brazil’s regulated betting landscape.”