Macau’s Casino Market Captures Momentum: A Promising Outlook for the Rest of 2025
The early weeks of September have been marked by notable growth in Macau’s casino sector, with reports indicating a year-on-year revenue increase of 10%, as per insights from Jefferies.
In the first eight months of 2025, the region has seen gross gaming revenue (GGR) reach MOP163.1 billion (approximately US$20.3 billion). Analysts at Jefferies anticipate that this upward trend will sustain through September, especially with the Golden Week—a major Chinese national holiday—kicking off on October 1.
According to researchers Anne Ling and Jingjue Pei, the GGR for the week of September 1-7 reflects 10% growth compared to the same period last year. They attributed this positive shift to a combination of factors, including engaging entertainment events, the introduction of new venues, enhanced incentives for players, and rising asset valuations. Additionally, they noted a burgeoning demographic of consumers with disposable income willing to spend freely.
Ling and Pei expressed optimism that these dynamics will continue to support GGR growth throughout the remainder of the year. They project a quarterly growth rate of 13.8% for Q3, followed by 15.3% in Q4, with an expected 9.5% growth rate for 2025.
Consequently, Jefferies has revised its full-year GGR estimate upward from MOP237 billion to MOP248 billion, outpacing the government’s more conservative projection of MOP228 billion. The bank envisions steady growth into the future, forecasting increases of 3.5% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027.
Entertainment and Experiential Events Enhance GGR
Analysts at Citigroup echo these sentiments, emphasizing the role of high-profile entertainers such as Jacky Cheung and Eason Chan in attracting affluent patrons and boosting GGR. “This strategy of leveraging big-name performances is poised to significantly elevate casino traffic following the Golden Week,” noted George Choi and Timothy Chau. Upcoming events include the NBA China Games at the Venetian Arena from October 10-12 and Jackson Wang’s concerts at the Galaxy Arena on October 11-12.
If these events effectively drive consumer engagement and gaming activity post-Golden Week, Citigroup suggests that their initial October GGR forecast of MOP23 billion (US$2.86 billion) may be notably conservative.
Furthermore, the rising appeal of baccarat side bets is enhancing profit margins for local operators, showcasing a robust demand in the premium mass gaming segment. “Our premium-mass table assessments indicate a strong, sustained interest in gaming since April,” according to the analysts.
Citigroup has subsequently adjusted its 2025 GGR forecast from a growth rate of 7% to a more ambitious 10%, projecting a total of MOP248.6 billion. This adjustment indicates a potential annual growth of 14% for the remainder of the year. For 2026, their GGR outlook has been raised from 5% year-on-year to 7%, anticipating a total figure of MOP265.5 billion.
As Macau continues to cement its status as a leading gaming destination, the interplay between entertainment, economic trends, and consumer behavior will be crucial in shaping its future trajectory.