New Gambling Regulations in the Netherlands: Initial Success but Lingering Concerns
The Dutch gambling authority, Kansspelautoriteit (KSA), recently reported a promising 31% decrease in player losses since the implementation of new player protection measures. However, there are apprehensions regarding whether this decline may be linked to a shift toward offshore gambling.
In October 2024, the KSA introduced several pivotal regulations aimed at enhancing gambling safety. One significant change was the instatement of monthly deposit limits, which restrict players from depositing more than €700 ($824) after they reach this threshold in a given month. Notably, for younger adults aged 18-25, the cap is set at €300, with these limits reapplying automatically at the beginning of each month.
Following the rollout of these restrictions, a marked decline in the number of players exceeding these new deposit limits was observed. A report from KSA noted that the percentage of players depositing beyond the thresholds plummeted from 9.7% to just 2.2%. Among the younger demographic, this drop was even more pronounced, falling from 12.0% to 1.9%.
Additionally, players wishing to exceed these deposit limits must now communicate directly with their operators. Again, separate limits are enforced for young adults: €150 per month compared to €350 for others. Since these changes, fewer than half of players are exceeding these figures.
Notable Drop in Average Losses
As a result of these initiatives, the average monthly gambling losses in the Netherlands have decreased significantly. KSA reported that consumer losses went from €116 prior to the measures to €80 in the eight months following their implementation. The number of players losing over €1,000 monthly also saw a decline, dropping from 4% to 1%.
Even so, gross gaming revenue has witnessed an 8% decline during the same timeframe, which KSA interprets as evidence of reduced "excessive" gambling among licensed operators.
Rising Interest in Illegal Gambling
Despite these positive indicators, the KSA has raised alarms about a potential uptick in the illegal gambling market. Searches for the country’s top 100 illegal gambling sites have reportedly increased, suggesting a shift of some players towards unregulated options.
While KSA maintains that 93% of gambling activity is still occurring on legal platforms, this figure is a decrease from the earlier reported 95% post-regulation. The market dynamics are concerning, especially considering estimates from H2 Gambling Capital, which suggest that around half of the overall market—valued at €2.10 billion—could be flowing through offshore entities.
Future Implications of Tax Increases
The conversation around channelisation is ongoing, especially given that in April, the Licensed Dutch Online Gambling Providers (VNLOK) raised issues regarding the illegal market’s potential growth. Compounding this issue are recent tax hikes that will see the social benefits tax increase from 30.5% to 34.2%, with a further rise to 37.8% anticipated in January 2025. Such financial pressures could incentivize licensed operators to exit the market, potentially directing consumers back to illegal options.
Looking ahead, H2’s forecast indicates that by 2030, revenue from regulated operators might account for only 45% of the iGaming market, signaling challenges ahead for the Dutch online gambling landscape. As KSA prepares to release further insights into the repercussions of these changes, stakeholders will be closely monitoring the balance between consumer protection and the allure of unregulated gambling.